The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.Futures on the Nikkei Stock Exchange of Singapore opened down 175 points to 39,635.Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan: The conditions of "transformation cattle" in China stock market are forming four themes, focusing on mergers and acquisitions and self-control. Fang Yi, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Strategy, said at the main forum of Guotai Junan 2025 investment strategy that the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions of "transformation cattle" are forming; The key driving force of the market comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference, and the economic expectation is expected to be revised up in 2025H2; The mid-line of the stock market is expected to get out of the N-rhythm. Theme recommendation: merger and reorganization/self-control/humanoid robot/self-consumption. 1) M&A and reorganization: the regulatory tolerance of cross-border M&A and acquisition of unprofitable assets has been improved, and we are optimistic about the traditional industry leaders who are the main enterprises of science and technology chain and benefit from the optimization of industry structure; 2) Self-control: global science and technology supply chain reconstruction, optimistic about the improvement of localization rate of advanced semiconductors/basic software; 3) Humanoid robot: mass production and application scenario expansion are accelerated, and key components such as dexterous hands/actuators are optimistic; 4) Self-satisfaction consumption: demographic changes have given birth to new consumption patterns, and we are optimistic about the high growth of secondary consumption/pet consumption.
The leading enterprises in the quantum science and technology sector are competing for layout. Recently, the quantum science and technology sector has been active. Since September 24, the concept index of the straight flush quantum science and technology has risen by more than 60%, and the stock prices of many stocks have doubled. Among A-share listed companies, many companies including China Mobile, China Telecom, Guo Dun Quantum, Hexin Instrument, Guoxin Technology and Geer Software have already laid out in the field of quantum technology. In terms of future market potential, ICVTA&K, a scientific and technological consulting organization, predicts that in 2023, the overall market size of the global quantum industry may reach 7.24 billion US dollars. However, the current quantum technology industry is still in the stage of research and development and industrial exploration. Taking quantum computing as an example, Guo Dun Quantum said in a survey conducted by an organization on November 15th that quantum computers have only achieved quantum superiority in some specific problems at present, and it is estimated that it will take about 5 to 10 years to surpass classical computing power in practical and valuable problems in the future. (Economic Information Daily)Debon Securities: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited has deepened its sea going, strengthened its globalization and maintained its "buy" rating. Debon Securities Research Report pointed out that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (300750.SZ) plans to establish a joint venture with STELLANTIS in Spain, with an estimated total investment of 4.038 billion euros. This project will deepen the long-term strategic cooperative relationship between Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and Stellantis, the world's leading automobile manufacturer, in the field of new energy vehicles, and promote the global electrification and clean energy transformation by giving full play to their respective leading advantages and resources. Considering that the company is the industry leader, its supply chain integration ability is excellent, and the iteration of new products is accelerated, maintaining the "buy" rating.The leading enterprises in the quantum science and technology sector are competing for layout. Recently, the quantum science and technology sector has been active. Since September 24, the concept index of the straight flush quantum science and technology has risen by more than 60%, and the stock prices of many stocks have doubled. Among A-share listed companies, many companies including China Mobile, China Telecom, Guo Dun Quantum, Hexin Instrument, Guoxin Technology and Geer Software have already laid out in the field of quantum technology. In terms of future market potential, ICVTA&K, a scientific and technological consulting organization, predicts that in 2023, the overall market size of the global quantum industry may reach 7.24 billion US dollars. However, the current quantum technology industry is still in the stage of research and development and industrial exploration. Taking quantum computing as an example, Guo Dun Quantum said in a survey conducted by an organization on November 15th that quantum computers have only achieved quantum superiority in some specific problems at present, and it is estimated that it will take about 5 to 10 years to surpass classical computing power in practical and valuable problems in the future. (Economic Information Daily)
["Shanghai housing subsidy of 300,000 yuan" and "down payment of 20,000 yuan for 1.8 million hardcover existing houses"? Rumor has come] Recently, there have been a number of housing advertisements on the short video platform. The agent who released the housing claimed that he could receive the "housing subsidy" when buying a house in Shanghai, with the amount ranging from 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan. An intermediary declared: "Shanghai Songjiang New Town has a total price of 760,000 yuan and a housing subsidy of 250,000 yuan." "After receiving the subsidy, you can buy a 78-square-meter house with a down payment of 50,000 yuan." There is also an intermediary who claims: "The minimum payment can be only 20,000 yuan, and you can buy a finely decorated existing house with a total price of 1.8 million yuan." The reporter consulted a number of intermediaries and learned that the so-called "purchase subsidies" appearing in short videos are not government subsidies, but gimmicks. When the house-watchers consult subsidies on the spot, different intermediaries will have different calibers. Usually, there are three routines-one is to raise the price first and then lower the price. Second, the so-called "subsidy" is actually that developers lend money to buyers to pay down payment, and buyers have to pay interest. Third, the commission returned by the intermediary to the buyers is packaged as a "subsidy". (Shanghai rumor platform)The fifth district of Beijing issued a blue warning of strong winds. At present, Yanqing District, Mentougou District, Haidian District, Changping District and Fangshan District of Beijing have issued blue warnings of strong winds.Many places support housing consumption in the form of issuing housing subsidies. Recently, many places have taken the form of issuing housing subsidies and optimizing housing provident fund policies to support housing consumption and release housing demand. For example, recently, the General Office of the Government of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region issued "Measures for Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Guangxi", which mentioned that "optimizing the housing provident fund policy" and "financial subsidies support the reasonable demand for housing purchase". Shanxi Datong, Hubei Xiangyang, Hubei Xianning and other places have also recently launched relevant measures to support residents' rigid and improved housing demand and boost the real estate market. Zhang Bo, dean of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said in an interview that the role of promoting housing consumption in "stabilizing the property market" is expected to continue to increase, and more policies will be introduced in the future to help stabilize the property market. (Securities Daily)
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide 12-14